Joel Morin · Analytical Writing

Operation Epic Fury

A nine-brief fictional analytical scenario examining the current Middle East conflict and its global consequences

The scenario is fictional. The frameworks are real.
March 2026 · joelmorin.substack.com

Update · March 16, 2026

The UK confirmed it withheld Diego Garcia access for US Iran strikes. Brief 002 identified this leverage point before events confirmed it. The analysis holds.

Intelligence Briefs
1
Brief 001
Why Iran?
Motivations, Contradictions and Strategic Incoherence
2
Brief 002 · Confirmed by events
The European Response Architecture
Growing the Spine — UK withheld Diego Garcia access for Iran strikes
3
Brief 003
The Domestic Unravelling
Fracture, Stampede and the Machinery of Consolidation
4
Brief 004
The Iranian Perspective
What Washington Does Not Understand and Cannot Afford to Keep Getting Wrong
5
Brief 005
The Imperial Pattern
Hawaii to Iraq to Iran and the Operating System That Never Changed
6
Brief 006
The China Variable
Senior Partner, Paper Tiger, Swing Actor and the Nuclear Reframe
7
Brief 007
The Palestinian Dimension
The Foundational Grievance Beneath Everything
8
Brief 008
The Endgame
Scenarios, Conditions and the Outcomes Nobody Is Naming
9
Brief 009
The Removal of Conscience
JAGs, the Kill Chain and Criminal Liability Under International Humanitarian Law
 Conclusion · Analytical Essay
The Obligation of Knowing
Every country that has deferred, accommodated and gone along to get along has been placing the sign in the window. The series is an argument for taking it down.
 Appendix · Illustrative Case Study
The Diaspora Trap — Cuba, Venezuela, Iran
How exile communities with frozen political psychology have shaped — and distorted — American foreign policy across three generations
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About This Series

Operation Epic Fury is a fictional analytical scenario that uses current geopolitical events as raw material for serious analytical writing. The intelligence brief format — used in defence, foreign policy and security communities — provides a structure for evidence-based analysis that follows the evidence where it leads.

The scenario is fictional. The legal frameworks, historical precedents, geopolitical dynamics and moral arguments are real. The conclusions are the author's own.

Joel Morin spent a career managing complex systems under pressure. He writes from Lunenburg, Nova Scotia.